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Flawed Premise

“A new NPR report suggests the global response to COVID-19 may have been reached on a flawed premise.

Mounting evidence suggests the coronavirus is more common and less deadly than it first appeared.

The evidence comes from tests that detect antibodies to the coronavirus in a person’s blood rather than the virus itself.

The tests are finding large numbers of people in the US who were infected but never became seriously ill. And when these mild infections are included in coronavirus statistics, the virus appears less dangerous.

“The current best estimates for the infection fatality risk are between 0.5% and 1%,” says Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at the Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security.

That’s in contrast with death rates of 5% or more based on calculations that included only people who got sick enough to be diagnosed with tests that detect the presence of virus in a person’s body.”

https://fee.org/articles/npr-mounting-evidence-suggests-covid-not-as-deadly-as-thought-did-the-experts-fail-again/?fbclid=IwAR1UNQ0jK5GWI-MLw9xwZFOE6Gtdv_lr0eh05iNKXMN8Un62TojX-v6xbL8

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Some better news.

“Recent studies have also found that many people with mild or no symptoms who test positive for Covid-19 later don’t show antibodies when tested. Patients with mild symptoms produce a weaker antibody response than those who get more severely ill. Most antibody tests are primed to minimize false positives, but as a result are less sensitive.

These people, however, have been found to have long-lasting, potent T-cells that can ward off future infection. A small study last month from France found that six of eight close family contacts of sick patients didn’t develop antibodies but did develop Covid-19-specific T-cells. A new study from Sweden finds that moderately ill patients developed both Covid-19-specific antibodies and T-cells. But twice as many healthy individuals who donated blood during the pandemic and asymptomatic family members of sick patients generated Covid-19 specific T-cells than did antibodies.

“SARS-CoV-2-specific memory T cells will likely prove critical for long-term immune protection against COVID-19,” the study concludes. “The observation that most individuals with asymptomatic or mild COVID-19 generated highly functional durable memory T cell responses,” not uncommonly in the absence of antibodies, “further suggested that natural exposure or infection could prevent recurrent episodes of severe COVID-19.”

In short, antibody tests may significantly underestimate the number of people who have already been infected with Covid-19, especially if they had a milder strain. If so, it’s possible that some early hot spots, like New York City and northern Italy, already have a degree of herd immunity. The same may be true of other places soon.”

https://www.wsj.com/articles/herd-immunity-may-be-closer-than-you-think-11594076237?fbclid=IwAR1UNQ0jK5GWI-MLw9xwZFOE6Gtdv_lr0eh05iNKXMN8Un62TojX-v6xbL8

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lock­downs cor­re­lated with spread of Covid-19

“…it turns out that lock­downs cor­re­lated with a greater spread of the virus. States with longer, stricter lock­downs also had larger Covid out­breaks. The five places with the harsh­est lock­downs—the Dis­trict of Co­lumbia, New York, Mi­chigan, New Jer­sey and Mass­achusetts—had the heav­i­est case­loads.

“The les­son is not that lock-downs made the spread of Covid-19 worse—al­though the raw ev­i­dence might sug­gest that—but that lock­downs prob­a­bly didn’t help, and open­ing up didn’t hurt. This de­fies com­mon sense. In the­ory, the spread of an in­fec­tious dis­ease ought to be con­trol­lable by quar­an­tine. Ev­i­dently not in prac­tice, though we are aware of no re­searcher who un­der­stands why not.”

@DonLuskin WSJ

https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-failed-experiment-of-covid-lockdowns-11599000890?st=y693g58sl114nq1&reflink=article_copyURL_share&fbclid=IwAR1UNQ0jK5GWI-MLw9xwZFOE6Gtdv_lr0eh05iNKXMN8Un62TojX-v6xbL8